Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
